Coffee Long (+13.51%)

Thesis: Prices broke out above a falling wedge, while public sentiment is extremely pessimistic and commercial hedger net long positioning was at multi-year highs. This combined with the prices being extended from their 200 day moving average makes for a high probability mean reversion trade. Since prices broke out, I would buy 1/2 a position on pullback to support, which was the downtrend line that prices broke out above and add the other half on a break to new highs.

chart

Original Plan:

JO
Entry 19.25
Stop 18.7
Target 22
Shares 1
Profit 2.75
Loss 0.55
Risk/Reward 5.00


Actual Entry: 
Same as above.

End Result:

chart

Symbol Date Entered Entry Price Date Exited Exit Price Profit (Loss)
JO 9/28/2015 19.25 10/9/2015 21.85 13.51%

Trading Notes: Not many notes here, I put in a limit order for the price I wanted to buy it at and got filled the following day. I set an alert for a breakout above the 9/25 highs as a signal to add, which I missed, due to being busy elsewhere. I took profits slightly below my profit target since price went somewhat parabolic intraday and was close enough to my profit target.

Lesson: My positions work out best when they’re planned and I follow that plan to a T. As I’ve seen in some of my other trades, if I watch a position too closely I’m more likely to deviate from my original plan. I could’ve added to the position as prices flagged for a few days, but I kind of gave up on it after missing my original signal. I could benefit from working on getting the most out of my best ideas that are working before I move onto another idea.

As always, if you have any questions feel free to reach out and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.

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