Thesis: Prices broke out above a falling wedge, while public sentiment is extremely pessimistic and commercial hedger net long positioning was at multi-year highs. This combined with the prices being extended from their 200 day moving average makes for a high probability mean reversion trade. Since prices broke out, I would buy 1/2 a position on pullback to support, which was the downtrend line that prices broke out above and add the other half on a break to new highs.
Actual Entry: Same as above.
|Symbol||Date Entered||Entry Price||Date Exited||Exit Price||Profit (Loss)|
Trading Notes: Not many notes here, I put in a limit order for the price I wanted to buy it at and got filled the following day. I set an alert for a breakout above the 9/25 highs as a signal to add, which I missed, due to being busy elsewhere. I took profits slightly below my profit target since price went somewhat parabolic intraday and was close enough to my profit target.
Lesson: My positions work out best when they’re planned and I follow that plan to a T. As I’ve seen in some of my other trades, if I watch a position too closely I’m more likely to deviate from my original plan. I could’ve added to the position as prices flagged for a few days, but I kind of gave up on it after missing my original signal. I could benefit from working on getting the most out of my best ideas that are working before I move onto another idea.
As always, if you have any questions feel free to reach out and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.