Daily Trading Journal 7/30/14

The major indices saw some intraday volatility due to the releases of economic data and the fed meeting. Surprisingly the Russell 2000 continues to hold up decently well the past few days along with the Nasdaq 100 which is consolidating above the 10 day near its YTD highs. The S&P 500 barely held the 30 day SMA and looks vulnerable to a small pullback as it continues to test trend line support and its short term moving averages are flattening / rolling over. The Dow remains the weakest of the bunch below the 30 day SMA and clinging to its short term trend line with support below it at 167.25. The spot VIX continues to base above rising short term moving averages and below resistance at 13.50. Expect a move into the mid 15s at the least once we break this level which adds to my neutral/bearish bias on the major indices in the short term. Bonds (TLT) gapped lower and closed below the 10 day SMA though support comes in around 113.85, not much lower. Intermediate term bias remains higher but in the short term we can see some digestion through time or a pull back. Global equity markets were mainly lower on the day with Turkey (TUR) leading lower down 1.95% on the day and Argentina (ARGT) and Russia (RSX) leading higher up 4.93% and 2.56% respectively. I still think that we’re likely to see some volatility and some downside the rest of the week just because of the amount of data out and also reaction moves to the Fed tend to be fake-outs.

Sectors leading to the upside included social media stocks (SOCL), IPOs (IPO), semiconductors (SMH), retail (XRT), large cap biotech (IBB), regional banks (KRE), transports (IYT) and consumer discretionary (XLY).

Sectors lagging on the day included utilities (XLU), coal stocks (KOL), gold miners (GDX), consumer staples (XLP), oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), and solar names (TAN).

Crude revisiting support at 98.75-99.00 with a positive momentum divergence though its short term moving averages continue to trend lower.

Gasoline going to fill the gap at 2.79. Bias continues to be lower below the 10 day SMA.

Natural gas continuing to base above 3.72. Look for a break of the range 3.72-3.85 or move above the moving averages.

Wheat, soybean oil, corn, soybean meal and soybeans trying to build bases as they are all extended to the downside and oversold, but remain weak until we can get the short term (10/30) day SMAs to flatten.

Heating oil continues to flag above the 10 day SMA. Resistance at the 30 day SMA. Range is 2.8850-2.92 play a break of that range, though I think it will be higher toward 2.97 and 3.03.

Cocoa flagging above the 10 day SMA. Bias remains higher. New highs likely imminent.

Small reversal in Sugar at support (16.50). Range remains 16.50-18.25, looks vulnerable to break lower, but who knows.

Coffee looks ready to go with a move above 183 resistance. 197 is next important level.

New lows for cotton, not much else to say.

Oats continue to try and round out a bottom above the lows near 320. I think eventually we move higher toward 383 (150 day SMA) but it may take a while at this point.

The dollar index finding resistance in the mid 81s as it enters overbought territory. Bias remains neutral/higher above a rising 10 day SMA but it could probably, okay definitely, use some consolidating at this point.

AUD/USD desperately trying to hold support at .93 and .9330 but it looks kind of weak here with the 10/30 day SMAs now sloping lower.
The 150 day SMA should provide support near the bottom of its prior range at .92.

GBP/USD at trend line support of 1.6920. Below that, the 150 day is at 1.6750.

USD/JPY at the top of its 100.75-102.75 range. Needs to consoidate here, allow the shorter term moving averages to play catch-up and then head for a test of the top of the longer term range at 105.

EUR/USD approaching support at 1.3350 and oversold. May see some sort of bounce/consolidation here as the Dollar index looks a bit extended too.


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