Daily Trading Journal 7/29/14

Today the major indices saw some downside follow through after a few days of weakness and deteriorating breadth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed on the lows. The Dow closed below its 30 day, S&P 500 just above its 30 day and the Nasdaq 100 continues to hold its 10 day. The Russell 200 actually held up the best today but continues to have a negative bias until we can break above and hold 115.30 which is the top of its recent range. The Dow transports continue to show weakness, closing below the 30 day and trend line support, after momentum failed to confirm new highs in price. The VIX was up 5.75% on the day closing just below resistance at 13.50. Rounding bottom continues and a break above 13.50 will likely see the mid 15s. Bonds (TLT) closed at new highs and the bias remains higher in the intermediate term above rising moving averages. Global equity markets were mainly lower on the day with Thailand (THD) leading lower -2.36% and Argentina (ARGT) leading higher up 1.89%.

Sectors leading to the upside included telecom services (VOX), telecom (XTL), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), coal stocks (KOL), small caps (IWM), gaming stocks (BJK), and healthcare (XLV).

Sectors lagging on the day included transports (IYT), industrials (XLI), aerospace & defense stocks (PPA), utilities (XLU), solar stocks (TAN), gold miners (GDX), oil services (OIH, PXJ), and basic materials (XLB).

Copper range remains 3.16-3.29.

Crude continues to grind lower but holding 101. 30 day SMA should act as resistance on the upside. 98.75-99 is key support.

Natural gas building a base above 3.72 but needs a close above the 10 day SMA before anything can really get going. Bias remains lower.

Wheat failed to hold the 10 day SMA again. New marginal lows.

Soybean oil gave quite a bit back intraday but held the 10 day SMA. Needs to hold 36.40 or new lows will be likely.

Corn failing to break above the 10 day SMA. Bias remains lower.

Heating oil continues to flag above the 10 day. 2.97 and 3.03 remain targets.

Palladium continues to flag. Support 863, 840.

Platinum back below 1490. Action remains choppy. I think a test of the 150 day SMA (1447) is likely over the short term to set up for an intermediate term move higher as it has been basing for a long time.

Cocoa flagging above the 10 day SMA. Bias higher above 3148 support.

Sugar testing the lows of its 16.50-18.25 range. Looks vulnerable for a break lower.

Coffee continues to base below resistance at 183. Rising 10/30 day SMAs as support below.

Soybean meal continues to hold above the 10 day. 30 day SMA seems to be providing some resistance as it approaches. Watch 349 and the lows of 340 if long.

Similar action in Soybeans. Watch 1082 and the lows of 1055.

Oats trying to hold its 10/30 day SMAs. Bias remains higher above 328.

Cotton looking to make new lows.

Dollar index hitting target of 81.25. Bias remains neutral/higher above a rising 10 day SMA.

GBP/USD pulling back to trend line resistance at 1.6925.

USD/JPY range remains 100.75-102.75. Nikkei leading the breakout higher with USD/JPY to follow suit? I don’t know. Wait for a range break.

AUD/USD choppy action continues. Bias above .9330 with target at .97.

EUR/USD grinding lower below its 10 day SMA. 1.3350 support coming in.

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