No Posts 3/26/14-4/14/14

Catching up on schoolwork and other things that are of higher priority. Hope to be back to blogging consistently soon.

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Trading Journal 3/25/14

Another day of a relatively wide trading range in the major indices with large caps outperforming small caps and technology as a whole. The story continues to be old tech stocks such as MSFT, IBM, HPO, etc… catching an aggressive bid and breaking out over the past few weeks. Bonds printed an inside day as they look to test overhead resistance in the 109 area in TLT. Global equity markets were higher across the board with the exception of Vietnam (VNM) and the Philippines (EPHE). Small caps and the Nasdaq 100 bounced on light volume off oversold conditions and trend line support, but remain vulnerable below the 8/21/50 day EMAs.

Leaders to the upside included oil service stocks and energy (OIH,PXJ,XLE), steel stocks (SLX), semiconductors (SMH), industrials (XLI), and healthcare stocks (XLV).

Laggards included solar stocks (TAN), retail stocks (XRT), social stocks (SOCL), gaming stocks (BJK), consumer discretionary (XLY), and small caps (IWM).

In the commodity space, platinum futures broke trend line support and remain below all the key moving averages. Need to let it base at these levels and setup again on the long side. Short opportunity below today’s low.

Heating oil closing back above the 8 day EMA and seems to be trying to setup a catch-play type long. Below 2.88, next support at 2.83.

Oats breaking down below the neckline at 410 and testing support at 400. Next support below at 380.

Natural gas bullish engulfing candle on light volume. See if it can continue above today’s high and close above the 8 day.

AUD/USD breakout continues. Resistance at .9240 and 94. Support below at the rising 8/21/50 day EMAs. Still looks great on the short/intermediate term.

Daily Trading Journal 3/24/14

Weakness continued in the major indices today as the Nasdaq 100 and small caps lead the market lower. Both small caps and the QQQ’s bounced off trend line support and the 50 day EMA and printed a hammer candle on heavy volume. This gives longs a reference point to trade against if playing for a bounce, but we remain vulnerable below the 8/21 day. Bonds were higher on the day as they look to test the 109 area of resistance in TLT. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with India and Greece leading to the upside while Colombia, Thailand and Turkey lead to the downside. I haven’t really had a chance to analyze the price action of the past few days, but at first glance it looks like we remain in a volatile range until we break support at the 50 day EMA. Today’s low provided a point of reference to trade against as we came into support and active shorts likely covered and tried some longs rather than pressing. Obviously you want to see a break above today’s high and close above the 8/21 day EMAs to regain bullish momentum.

Leaders to the upside included coal stocks (KOL), steel stocks (SLX), utilities (XLU), telecom (VOX) and financials (XLF).

Leaders to the downside included gold miners (GDX), large cap biotech (IBB), social stocks (SOCL), solar stocks (TAN), small caps (IWM), and healthcare (XLV). A lot of momo names have been very week in the past few days. The heavy volume and bottoming tails today in biotech and technology as a whole could be signaling some capitulation and a buying opportunity against the day’s low.

In the commodity space, gold pulling back further into trend line support in the 1309 area. Now solidly below the 8/21 day as they curve down. Next support at 1300 and 1275.

Silver grinding back to the downside as it moves into support around 19.80-20 though it is back below all the key EMAs.

Copper continues to build a range between 2.90 and 3.00. Watch for a close above the 8 day EMA that may provide entry for a short term catch play long setup.

Natural gas drifting lower with the 8 day EMA as resistance. Support 4.19.

Wheat testing its recent highs after holding the 8 day EMA. Like I’ve been saying, it remains bullish until we break and close below the 8 day.

Soybean oil trying to hold the 50/100 day EMAs at 40.90, but remains weak below the 8/21 day EMAs that are now sloping downward. Next support at 40.35, 39.90.

Corn closing in the upper part of its recent range testing 490, and looks to want to breakout soon after testing the 21 day EMA. Still remains a great chart on a short/intermediate and long term basis.

Palladium making new highs intraday with some negative momentum divergences. See if it can build this upper level base and work off these overbought conditions. Still think palladium looks good on an intermediate basis after last week’s backtest of the breakout area.

Platinum continues to hold trend line support at 1430.

Cocoa selling pressure increasing as it broke and closed below the 21 day EMA on Friday. Next area is the 50 day 2911 and 100 day at 2825.

Sugar continues to look weak below falling 8/21 day EMAs. Support 16.47, 15.90.

Soybean meal flagging above 455 as it looks to make an attempt at the intraday highs of 472.90 in the coming days.

Oats remain a mess. Head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 410. Below 410 support at 401, 380.

Soybeans continue to hold the 21 day EMA and look to want to test the recent highs after some more basing action above 1365. Closed at 1431 on the highs of the day (light volume).

Cotton bearish engulfing candle after being rejected by resistance at 93.50. Back below the 8/21 day EMA, immediate term bullish momentum is no longer there.

AUD/USD continues its breakout and looks like it will test .9237 in the short term on its way to an intermediate term price target of .94 as per the breakout of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Trading Journal 3/20/14

Another day of modest gains to the upside in the major indices as they continue to digest above the 8/21 day EMAs.  Global equity markets were mixed on the day with some standouts being Egypt (EGPT) hitting new highs, Indonesia (EIDO) putting in an island reversal at resistance, and Israel (EIS) making a new closing high. Bonds tried to move higher but were sold back down to close the day down .18% (TLT). It did seem like a majority of the heavy lifting was being done by regional banks, financials, and semiconductors so we’ll have to see if the market has enough left in it to test new highs. Some technicians on twitter had concerns about the breadth of this recent move to new highs, signaling that less stocks are participating, so we’ll see if that resolves to the upside in the coming trading days. Overall, the bias remains neutral/higher as we are above the 8/21 day EMA, though trading does remain choppy in some areas. Certain sectors and individual names are certainly providing opportunity in both directions as we look to get some resolution from this recent range in the coming days.

Leaders to the upside included regional banks (KRE), semiconductors (SMH), telecom (VOX), financials (XLF), materials (XLB), and large caps as a whole (DIA,SPY) as we saw small caps and tech lag a bit today.

Laggards on the day included solar stocks (TAN), social stocks (SOCL), gaming stocks (BJK), home builders (XHB), coal stocks (KOL), and large cap biotech (IBB).

In the commodity space, gold now below the 8/21 day EMA as it clings to support at 1326-1329. Trend line support and the 50 day EMA come in at 1309-1311.
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Trading Journal 3/19/14

A day of volatility in all asset classes as the Fed announced it would taper its purchases another $10 billion to a “mere” $55 billion per month. That was expected but volatility picked up during Janet Yellen’s conference as there seemed to be some inconsistency in her statements and the market reacted with increased volatility due to the confusion. US stocks ended modestly lower on the day, well off the intraday lows and the majority of global equity markets were lower as well. Brazil and Colombia were slightly green on the day and stood out from the sea of red on my watch-list. Bonds were down slightly on the day and held the 21 day EMA as the dollar index moved higher on the back of the FOMC decision. The major indices printed another close above the 8/21 day EMAs so the bias remains to the upside but we’ll have to see if these post FOMC moves see follow through to end the week.

Leaders to the upside included regional banks (KRE), solar stocks (TAN), oil service stocks (OIH, PXJ), financials (XLF), semiconductors (SMH), and homebuilders (XHB).

Laggards on the day included gold miners (GDX), the real estate etf (IYR), gaming stocks (BJK), social stocks (SOCL), utilities (XLU), and coal stocks (KOL).

Lots of volatility in the commodity space as well with gold and silver closing on the lows, holding support at 1329 and 20.50 respectively. Next levels below that include 1309, 1300 and for silver 20.00.

Big reversal hammer candle print in Copper futures, closing up at 2.98 after printing an intraday low of 2.87. Marks a short term bottom, but will have to see how it handles resistance from falling moving averages. Still has a lot to prove in the intermediate/long term.

Wheat making new highs and closing at 716 as the 8 day EMA provides momentum to the upside. Remains bullish above the 8 day.

Corn continues to consolidate under 490, but looks great in the short/intermediate and long term. Pullbacks should be bought.

Heating oil continues to try to build a base above the recent lows at 2.88, but the 8 day EMA remains key resistance int he short term. 2.82-2.84 next area of support.

Platinum and Palladium rolled over a bit today, with each closing down 1%. Signaling that they need more time before testing new highs. Still think Palladium looks good intermediate/long term.

Sugar closed back above the 21 day after testing support at 16.90 yesterday. Next area of resistance is above at 17.40, then the closing highs are in play.

Soybean meal posting new closing highs at 461.70 but needs a weekly close above 455 to confirm a breakout.

Oats back at the 50 day EMA, test of 400 likely coming. Support 425, 400, 380. Resistance above at the 8/21 day EMA and 460.

Soybeans saw follow through after closing back above the 8/21 day yesterday. Recent closing highs of 1461 in play in the short term.

In the currency markets, obviously a big day for the dollar as the dollar index is back above the 8/21 day and testing an 80 handle.  USD/CAD also breaking out to new highs as well, chart looks great on multiple time frames.

EUR/USD breaking down to the 21 day EMA, needs to hold 1.38 for short term.

GBP/USD finally looking to test the bottom of its upward price channel in the mid 1.64s as it works off some overbought conditions and prepares for a test of long term resistance in the 1.68-1.70 area.

AUD/USD back below the breakout area of .905-.908 again, but still think the bias is neutral/higher. Like the chart in the intermediate term.