Your Road Map For This Yen Rally

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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With the Yen rallying nearly 10% from intraday low to high in as many days, this breakout is not one to be ignored. Since the Yen has  a strong negative correlation with US equities, this inter-market relationship is an important one to keep track of regardless of whether you trade currencies or not.

Structurally the Yen has been trading in a seven point range at and below the 2006-2007 lows for the last 15 months. Late last year prices confirmed a failed breakdown by breaking back above the 2005 & 2007 lows, as well as the downtrend line from the 2012 highs.

Over the past two weeks prices have accelerated to the upside, providing additional confirmation that this market is headed higher. As long as prices can hold above support outlined in gray (.0082), then the weight of evidence suggests the first upside target is near the 161.8% extension of the late 2014-2016 range and prior support near .0098-.0099.

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U.S. Stocks Are Ready To Play Catch-Up

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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A few weeks ago global equity markets began to mean revert to the upside after many met downside targets and momentum positively diverged. For examples of this check out my posts from then here and here. The same failed breakdowns and bullish momentum divergences that sparked a rally globally are now present across many of the US sectors and indices.

Of the 41 US indices / sectors I follow, 28 of them have bullish momentum divergences on the daily charts and have either confirmed, or are working on confirming, a failed breakdown by trading back above a prior low.

A chart of the S&P 500 cash index is a good example of the conditions I’m referring to. Last week prices made new marginal lows and quickly reversed while momentum put in a higher low. If prices can close above the August lows, it would confirm the failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence. Structurally this remains a bear market, but with prices 9% below the 200 day moving average the weight of evidence suggests that a counter-trend rally could develop from here.

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Buy Twitter And Short The Rest Of Social Media

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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Twitter has been a disaster of a stock for the majority of its time as a public company, but recent price action suggests a tradable bottom may be in on an absolute and relative basis.

Before getting into the price action, it’s worth acknowledging the continued deterioration in sentiment regarding this stock in recent months. I’ve been negative on the stock for a while, but with the downside targets I outlined here being met, I don’t see a reason to be overly pessimistic on the stock at current levels. With price action improving in the face of another poor earnings report and another slew of analyst downgrades, it appears, at least anecdotally, that sentiment is overly bearish in this name.

With sentiment suggesting a neutral/bullish stance is appropriate, let’s see what price is indicating.

On the daily chart spanning back to last August I outlined the relevant downside targets for the intermediate term. As my notes indicate, the stock recently met both the tactical and structural downside price targets of 14.30 and 13.15 respectively, and quickly reversed. The day following its earnings report the stock opened, and managed to close well above, the after-hours lows and followed through with an 11% move to the upside on Friday.

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Why I Want To Buy Disney Above 90.50

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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Regardless of how strong their brand may be, Disney continues to remain correlated to the S&P 500, as most stocks do during a bear market, and remains in a downtrend. Despite the neutral to bearish structural picture, the stock looks to be setting up for a tactical bounce in the coming weeks.

Structurally the stock remains range bound between 90 and the all-time highs at 122. During this recent selloff, prices retested the uptrend line from the 2009 lows, which also corresponded with the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2015 rally. I don’t believe in triple bottoms, and although this is the third time testing the $90 level, current evidence suggests the stock can stage a counter-trend rally before continuing to the downside.

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Epic Failed Breakout In Electronic Arts

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting

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As momentum stocks breakdown, the Nasdaq 100 has begun to breakdown in a similar fashion on a relative basis.

Below is a daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 vs the S&P 500.

NDX SPX

This ratio broke out to new highs late last year and spent a few months consolidating before ultimately resolving to the downside. This violent resolution lower confirmed a failed breakout as well as a bearish momentum divergence. Prices have since broken through the uptrend line from the summer of 2014 and look to be heading for a test of the uptrend from the June 2013 lows. From failed moves come fast moves, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this ratio ultimately retests the breakout level near 2.0 which corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the 2013-2016 rally.

Within this theme, Electronic Arts is one individual component that looks particularly vulnerable to the meltdown taking place in Nasdaq 100 stocks and momentum names as a whole.

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